Rational Capitalist Strategist strives to translate novel global forces and risks into understandable and actionable investment insights for our clients. Our mission is to bring intuitive understanding to the increasingly complex environment.

Following the fall of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) on Christmas Day, 1991, political scientist Francis Fukuyama wrote “The End of History and the Last Man.” In this book, he argued that humanity had arrived at a final resting place dominated by Western liberal democracy. Indeed, this case was supported by a wave of globalization over the coming decades, coinciding with a sustained deregulatory policy in the U.S. and birth of the internet. These elements powered secular (long-term) bull markets in both equities and bonds. Bottom line: this progression had profound implications for portfolio strategy – the rise of “buy-and-hold,” passive investing, and a golden age for stock/bond diversification.

Recently, New Forces have emerged. China’s rise as a global power has thinned goodwill with the U.S., which worries its global hegemony is at risk. New Risks, in Russia’s incursion into Ukraine in 2022 and today’s Middle East conflict, followed the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 – a trifecta of global supply-side shocks – which have upset the inflation outlook while exposing the fragilities of our globalized world. Meanwhile, the rise of artificial intelligence, similar to the birth of the internet in the 1980s and 1990s, promises a long-term productivity boom; though, its societal and labor-market effects remain uncertain. These New Forces and New Risks have included a disruption of the longstanding stock/bond relationship: At times, both have moved in lockstep, reducing their value for diversifying portfolios.

In this increasingly complex environment, Rational Capitalist Strategist provides Fresh Thinking, bringing clarity for investors amid markets shaped by geopolitical fragmentation and shifting economic regimes. Unencumbered by political pressure, which may compromise the value of advice from Wall Street, our firm strives to identify narratives early and translate them into clear building blocks in a broader macroeconomic evolution. Despite the complex landscape, we are excited by its prospects and invite you as we travel on this fascinating journey.